NFL Week 13

Matt Driffill

    **Fantasy Rant Warning**

   

    This is it, home stretch of NFL action.  Teams are trying to make last minute playoff runs and fantasy football playoffs are approaching us faster than homeless people on the streets.  My fantasy team is just about done; the Big Dogs are going to need some help from the Spread Eagles and the Minnesota Muffdivers if we’re to keep our season alive.

    I bet your fantasy team is already in the playoffs, maybe even with a bye clinched.  I bet you think you’re a hot shot now, don’t you?  Well maybe you are a hotshot, but maybe you aren’t.  My buddy Oliver has never really watched much football, maybe a Super Bowl here or there, but decided to give fantasy football a try this year and drafted a team almost strictly by the book.  And guess what?  He’s going to be in the playoffs this year while yours truly sits out on a third straight postseason (most likely; still keeping my fingers crossed).

    So what am I ranting about this week?  Certainly not fantasy football for it as much fun as rooting for your favorite team week in and week out.  Although, at times it can be equally as frustrating as rooting for your beloved NFL franchise.  And that’s what’s great about fantasy, it gives us football fans another thing to invest a ton of time and interest into instead of maybe a more productive hobby.

    But there’s bad things about fantasy football too that people don’t want to talk about unless there chips are down.  Well guess what jerks, my chips are down.  I fancy myself a pretty serious sports fan and I see myself missing out (probably) on another postseason, so what the H is going on?  How does somebody who’s been following a sport seriously for over a decade lose in to a guy who’s just giving it a try this season in fantasy football?  How is that possible?

    These thoughts have haunted my mind the last few weeks, as I’m sure there are plenty of you out there who feel the same way.  Thinking, “These guys were supposed to be good this year!  The book said so!” then having your team shit the bed week in and week out.  There’s a perfectly logical explanation at this.

    Kinda….

    At first my thoughts were, “Fantasy football is nothing but luck!  I can name the last 15 Super Bowl winners and MVP’s no problem, pick a winning record against the spread over the course of a year, and get contacted by the Minnesota Vikings, but can’t draft, assemble, and manage a successful fantasy football team?  It has to be luck!”

    So that’s the sour song the Sports Meister has been singing as the football season fades into the final stretch.  Any time anybody has said anything about fantasy football I merely throw it aside with a “hmph,” a “hah,” and a “It’s all fucking luck, you don’t know shit, I drafted a great F’n team!”

    And that’s been my story, no matter what, fantasy football is lucky.  You can’t be good because you don’t know who’s going to win, who’s going to be good, or who’s going to stay healthy.  I preached that the only way to be consistently good as fantasy football was to collect as many good luck charms as you possibly could because that was the basis of which fantasy championships were won.

    But then my twin brother pointed out that most of the same playoff teams from last year’s season are going to be in this year’s as well.  I doubted it, checked it out, and recanted my doubts in that specific order.  I still claimed lucky to their faces as I refused to believe I was less of a fantasy player and they were just jerks.  But deep down I realized the pattern and just tried to fight it off; tried to fight off the ideas that maybe I’m just not that good.  Maybe, I’m just not good at all.

    So my final conclusion on fantasy football is this.  Fantasy football is a lot like poker.  You can be as good as you want to get.  You can study trends, stats, schedules, and players’ injuries like you can study the odds of what to do in a poker situation.  You can know exactly what to do in any given setting, but in the end, luck will always prevail.  There’s a reason why no poker pro has won the WSOP in so many years, but there’s also a reason why poker great Phil Ivey was at this year’s final table.  Skill is essential for consistency, but not the answer for victory.

    And now for some pickskin

Last Week (10-6-0)

Season (93-81-2)

Home teams in bold…

Buffalo (+3) over New York Jets

I don’t see what’s not to like with this pick.  Buffalo’s coming off a win, at home, and getting points to a team they already defeated earlier in the year.  Sanchez has played well as a rookie, but Ralph Wilson stadium in December is a tough place to play for people not named Ahmad Bradshaw.  I like Buffalo in another close Bills-Jets contest.

Denver (-4.5) over Kansas City

If I wasn’t a Broncos fan I wouldn’t be taking the Broncos here.  A couple of weeks ago when the Chiefs took on the Steelers I said how uncomfortable I was with betting against Kansas City in Arrowhead stadium late in the year.  So what did I do?  Bet the Steelers.  What happened?  Chiefs won in overtime.  So did I learn my lesson?  Yes, but these are my Broncos and we need a win.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Oakland

Is it too soon to say, “Must win” for the Steelers?  Would that glorify a Raiders team that deems no significance at all?  The answers are No, and Yes respectively which leaves me with quite the dilemma.  The Steelers need to win a game before the free fall out of the wild card race and the Raiders need to be out of the public eye for as long as possible.  Not sure what to call this one yet, but I imagine when Sunday comes we might just be calling this one a “blowout.”

Indianapolis (-7) over Tennessee

I’ve been picking the Titans the last few weeks because you never leave the table when you’re on a heater, and that’s precisely what Vince Young was on.  Unfortunately, the all of a sudden 5-6 Titans find themselves traveling to Indianapolis to take on the undefeated Colts.  Do you like their chances?  I don’t like their chances.  But if you have Chris Johnson on your fantasy team you might as well just pencil your team in for a W.  He might go for 200 yards before Manning does; but a strong effort will still be a losing effort for Johnson this Sunday.

Jacksonville (PK) over Houston

The Jaguars are still holding a one game lead over the Texans despite the beat down they received last week from the 49ers.  However I expect Houston to still be hurting after yet another late game collapse versus Indy.  The Jaguars are just going to sneak on by collecting W’s whenever they can and never in exciting fashion.  But when the playoffs roll around you’ll be able to find this 10-6 team in them, and you can find the 7-9 Texans in the middle of the draft order.

Philadelphia (-5) over Atlanta

Why do I still believe this Eagles team is really good?  I have been fixed on them since the preseason and after losses to shitty teams and tight games with other shitty teams I still find myself picking them to cover insurmountable spreads week after week.  But 5 points against a reeling Atlanta team who may be without their franchise quarterback should be doable right?

Detroit (+13) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati has this thing where they don’t blow out teams.  Their only two double digit victories all season include an 11 point victory over the Texans and 35 point dismantling of the Bears.  But their offense doesn’t frighten me into thinking they can automatically cover a 13 pointer just because they’re playing the Lions.  Plus, I figure if Detroit has anything at all going for them it’s their offense and maybe they can get a little magic going early and let it ride.  Hell, the Bengals lost to the Raiders.

New Orleans (-9) over Washington

Officially done doubting the Saints.  Greg Williams has transformed that defense into one of the league’s best and most intimidating.  Sean Payton continues to prove he’s the league’s best play-caller as he and Drew Brees direct the ball all over the field to so many different guys.  I’m done doubting them.

Carolina (-5) over Tampa Bay

I’d like to quote Joe Namath here, but with a minor substitution, “I could care less about the NFC South bottom tier teams ‘strug-a-ling.’” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQqIQyT-RuM )

Chicago (-8.5) over St. Louis

The Bears need a win and St. Louis needs some talent.  Fortunately for the Bears they get to play the Rams.  Unfortunately for St. Louis, they have to play somebody every week.  Can they buy draft picks?  Can Roger Goodell give them more money in free agency?  This team needs so much help at every position that it could probably use Rush Limbaugh at left guard at this point.  Hell, they struck gold when they found Kurt Warner bagging groceries so many years ago, maybe they should go buy some groceries.

San Diego (-12) over Cleveland

The Chargers are playing like the team that I was afraid they would play like.  The might not lose another game, at least until the playoffs.  Their only three losses were to the Steelers (in Pittsburgh), the Broncos, and the Ravens.  Not a bad resume for a team that a lot of people wrote off after the first few weeks.

San Francisco (PK) over Seattle

How is this game a no-liner?  We’re talking about one of the league’s premier teams against one of the league’s most clown-like teams.  In fact, if “Team most likely to convert into a circus” was an award, the Seahawks would win it every year.  They fuckin’ stink and Ballpark Frank is going to run the ball down their throats.

Minnesota (-9.5) over Arizona

All of the hoopla about the Saints and Colts is well deserved, but people are quick to forget that the Vikings have been annihilating opponents and still only have one loss (which came in Pittsburgh).  The Vikings are good.  Really good.  Probably the most talented, most dangerous, and most explosive team in the league in all facets.  And I hate Brett Favre, just so you don’t forget.

Dallas (-2) over New York Giants

Allegedly Eli’s foot is becoming a more serious issue than previously thought.  The Giants put a new spin on the term “reeling,” as they have collapsed completely over the last month.  They likely will not make the postseason and they might be looking for a new coach in a month of two.  And you know exactly who they want, and he wants them.  Rewind three years ago when Bill Cowher said he was going to take a year away from coaching and then return to the ranks.  Simultaneously there were a lot of talks about a new coach for the Giants after Coughlin was struggling again.  Of course right after it was announced that Cowher was taking a year off, the Giants threw a one year extension at Coughlin because they figured they would tread water for another year before hiring their man.  What happened?  Giants won the Super Bowl that year, Coughlin got an extension and Cowher went back to CBS for two more years to patiently wait for his opportunity.  Giants fans, I think you have a lot to be excited for if you miss the playoffs this one year.

New England (-5) over Miami

I feel weird watching a league where the Saints and Vikings continue to look like the two best teams in the league.  Isn’t it supposed to be New England, and Indy?  Maybe with a hint of San Diego and Pittsburgh?  I don’t know.  It all feels very weird to me still.

Baltimore (+3) over Green Bay

I reckon Green Bay is pretty good.  I also reckon that the Ravens are pretty good.  In addition, I reckon that the Packers are extra good at home.  Plus, I reckon that Baltimore matches up perfectly with the Packers (over powering running game, and a pass rush that can’t be stifled).  I reckon that Baltimore wins 27-16.

Enjoy the football and root for a playoff push for the Big Dogs!!