NFL Week 12

Matt Driffill

    I’m just going to go right for it because I feel like there’s an elephant in the room.  The Broncos suck.  I was tricked for a few weeks after some miraculous wins that the Broncos might have some potential, but there’s none there.  It is what it’s supposed to be, a rebuilding year, and we need to understand that.  The Yankees won, the Gators likely will, I’ll let this old dog die.

    But other than some fanpression, I am really enjoying this season.  The NFL has been nuts!  There’s two teams that are still undefeated.  Two teams being undefeated has never happened this far into the NFL Season, there’s a playoff race in both conferences that are about a dozen teams deep each, and there’s games like last week.  Just classic matches that will be emblazoned in the fans’ hearts forever.

    38-37.  There’s nothing else to say.   Doesn’t sound familiar?  Well for you jerks out there not paying attention to the little man, the Cleveland Browns took the Detroit Lions close to the edge only to have rookie sensation Matt Stafford burn them on the final play of the game.  Advantage, Lions.

    Okay, I’m totally joking, that game meant nothing.  But I can’t say I wasn’t a little excited about the combination of Brady Quinn and Matt Stafford go for 726 yards and 9 TDs.  This is a quarterback driven league and I hope there’s one good one on every team.

    There will come a time when Manning and Brady are no longer around.  When the Roethlisbergers, Staffords, and Sanchii have to carry the torch of NFL quarterback greatness.  We’re being spoiled currently with the outstanding quarterback play by teams at the top year in and year out.

    So here we go, into my Sports Meister column rant of the week....

    How come so many teams insist on building around other positions than quarterback?  So many general managers and coaches say it starts with the line, or the running back, or the coach.  So many people say defense wins championships, and that coaching and chemistry is the key to success.

    It’s the quarterback.  And a lot of people are quick to shoot that down, and I understand, because having a good quarterback isn’t the only piece of the puzzle, but it’s certainly the most essential.

Exhibit A: The New England Patriots

    Since 2001, only one team has won more games (Colts).  However the Patriots hold the ultimate trump card with a 3-1 Super Bowl record this decade.  The Patriots built a dynasty on the arm of Tom Brady and are stilling riding it today as they are amongst the league’s best like countless other years.

Exhibit B: The Indianapolis Colts

    The best record since 2001, the Colts have a good playoff record, but only one Super Bowl title.  Currently the Colts are 10-0 and look like a serious Super Bowl contender.  With two more wins this season, the Colts can lock up their seventh straight season with at least 12 wins.  That sounds absurd right?  It is absurd.  This league is built to have parity from year to year, but Manning’s outstanding quarterback play has counterbalanced that.

Exhibit C: The Philadelphia Eagles

    Since 2001 the Eagles have only one sub-.500 record (2005 when McNabb battled injury).  Although they haven’t won a Super Bowl, they’ve been to one, and been to four other NFC Championships this decade.  Which of course, doesn’t sit well with them from an outside perspective but Eagles fans will defend them as thoroughly as Bills fans will defend their team from the early 90’s.  They look tough again this year and once again are poised to take another deep playoff run.

Exhibit D: The Pittsburgh Steelers

    This is one of those teams that didn’t necessarily need a stud at quarterback, they always got by with people like Kordell Stewart or Tommy Maddox.  But then look what happened when they landed Roethlisberger, a 15-1 season and two Super Bowl trophies.  And they’re coming back strong again this year to defend their title.

Exhibit E: The Atlanta Falcons

    Two years ago they were the most dysfunctional team in the league.  Their franchise player going to jail for dogfighitng and their first year coach booking midyear for Arkansas.  A coach and a rookie QB later and their in the playoff hunt for the second straight year.  Matt Ryan, only in his second year has proved to be the real deal, and you can bet that because of him, the Falcons will be contenders for the next decade.

Exhibit F: Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans

    Sure some of these teams have their quarterbacks now, but this group right here is the group that misfired on quarterbacks in the drafts over the last decade or have avoided drafting one.  Whether it was Joey Harrington, Jamarcus Russell, David Carr, or John Paul Losman, these teams misfired and have put their franchises years back in the process.

    Long story short.  If you’re an NFL executive and you want to win for an extended period of time in a league that is built for year-year chance, find yourself a quarterback first and foremost.

And now...

Last Week (7-8-1)

Season (83-75-2)  <--Finally an accurate number

Home teams in bold....

Green Bay (-10.5) over Detroit

I was all over the Lions for this pick, but a rookie quarterback that misses practice all week in an already extra-short week, well you just can’t go with that.  Plus Aaron Rodgers probably has some aggression he wants to take out on these rookie quarterbacks that get to play before their fifth year in the NFL.  Vengeance clouds the mind young Rodgers.

Dallas (-12) over Oakland

Oakland is precisely the team to have a couple of upsets in a year then gamblers start to ride them.  I know better Mr. Al Davis you trickster.  You’ve been up to this game for years.  Play for real the first few weeks to see how the season is going, then alternatively command your team to play great or bad to get favorable lines for your gambling obsession.  I’m all over that.

Denver (+6.5) over NY Giants

I can’t wait to have Kyle Orton Back.  I can’t believe I just said that.  Why aren’t I just rooting for next year’s draft already?

Indianapolis (-3) over Houston

A few weeks ago I said I’d step betting the Colts every week, because it’s impossible to go undefeated against the spread, way harder than going undefeated for real.  But every week I see the lines and I just figure the Colts can always cover them.  So, 3 points at Houston?  Sounds reasonable right?

Cincinnati (-12.5) over Cleveland

Think Brady Quinn can go for 4 TD’s again?  If he does, I still think the Bengals can cover.  The Browns stink worse than an egg salad sandwich on a plane when you’re sitting coach.  Just a rotten, rotten stink comes from a team that loses a heartbreaker to the Lions.  Never a good thing.

Minnesota (-10) over Chicago

So happy that the Bears aren’t winning.  Helps me cope with the Broncos collapse that much easier.  Before the season I thought this late November game could be the one that decides who wins the NFC North, now we know it’s a 10 point spread.  Yikes. 

Philadelphia (-9) over Washington

Are they Eagles good or what?  This is the most bipolar team in the league.  Some weeks they look exceptional, some weeks they look exceptionally shitting, and some weeks they look exceptionally mediocre.  I picked them for the Super Bowl at the beginning of the year, and they still have a real chance, but in the NFC, where there’s six or seven tough teams, I can’t say I have too much confidence in them.

Miami (-3) over Buffalo

Buffalo fans can really use a big win at home against the Dolphins for some consolation this season.  Unfortunately, Miami is tough and once again in the midst of a super tight AFC postseason race.   I have to admit that I kind of like Buffalo’s new offense of forcing it to Terrell Owens as much as possible is both exciting and more efficient than their usual offensive game plan of running the ball for two yards and throwing it to the other team.

Tennessee (PK) over Arizona

Vince Young is 4-0, and I’ll tell ya what, “You never leave the table when you’re on a heater.”  You’re heater will win ya way more than it’ll hurt ya in the end.  Vince Young and the Titans are on a heater, and they’ll probably put Kurt Warner in a retirement home after he gets roughed up at this game.

Seattle (-3) over St. Louis

Looking back for what I wrote for this game in week 1.

“Seattle (-7.5) over St. Louis

Just wow, what a shitty game.  My prediction Seattle 6, St. Louis -4.  Which of course Seattle would still cover.  How do you say the score will reach 6 and -4?  Easy.  St. Louis runs a screen pass, except because they’re so bad, the WR runs in the opposite direction for a safety!  This will happen a total of 5 times, but after the 3rd time the referee will just start taking points off of St. Louis for being so stupid.  Settled?  Sounds good.”

Still pretty much how I feel.

Atlanta (-10) over Tampa Bay

Atlanta is in need of a big win, and I can’t think of anybody easier to get a big win against than the Bucs.  They are putting a new emphasis on rebuilding mode.  You could call it junkyard mode because they’re building this team from scraps and are still years and years away from competing in a tight division like the NFC South.

Carolina (+3) over NY Jets

I said after the Bills beat them that the Jets would wind up going 4-12.  That prediction’s still in place if they lose out, which by all means is a possibility.  Carolina has looked good recently, Jake Delhomme may even be getting sleep at night now.  Seriously, would you be able to sleep if everybody in the sports world thought you sucked at your job?  Absolutely sucked at the thing you took the most pride in and loved the most?  It’d be a pretty tough spot to be in.

San Francisco (-3) over Jacksonville

Almost bought a San Francisco 49ers jersey the other day.  As the Bills flounder and Frank Gore flourishes I see myself jumping ship on my second favorite team more and more every day.  They got a lot to like out there in San Fran.  As for the Jaguars, they are kind of reminding me of that playoff team from a few years ago.  Nobody realizes they are 6-4 and in a real shot for the playoffs because they’re not beating teams like good teams beat teams.  They’re just getting bye week after week and picking up wins.  But not in the house that Gore built.

San Diego (-12) over Kansas City

The Chargers are on that kind of roll that might run all season long; you might want to pencil them in for late January.  They are finally utilizing the excess of talent that they have there and it sucks for Broncos fans.  But on the other side of the field we’ve seen a career altering intervention of sorts from WR Chris Chambers.  A guy who always had some skills, but mostly sucked.  Well for a few games in a row he’s been turning up the heat.  And now, with a chance against his former team, you can expect a career game out of Chambers this weekend.  (6 catches, 89 yards, 1 TD?  That’s probably a career game for him, right?)

Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Baltimore

Baltimore’s still on my shit list for ruining the Broncos perfect season.  That, with the defending champs getting points is forcing me to pick against the black birds this Sunday.  One of these has to run the table because Cincy can’t win that division can they?  Can they?  No, of course not.  Right?

New England (+3) over New Orleans

Usually if the Patriots are getting points, something’s up.  This something is that they’re attempting to end the Saints’ bid for a perfect season.  Coaching genius Bill Bilichiek will probably let them win this game so they can go 16-0, reach the Super Bowl, and lose to the Patriots in that game instead (kind of like how the Giants lost, reached, then won) just so another team can feel his pain.  But if that’s not the case, I like the Patriots to win, and by a surprisingly large margin.

Happy Thanksgiving, Enjoy the football!

And read my blog, it updates much more frequently....